When I presented the hype cycle for development ideas in a recent post, I didn’t bother to identify the causes or underlying dynamics that drive the cycle. I presented Gartner’s framework, applied it to international development (with some adaptations), and everyone reading nodded along. “Yep, that makes sense.” No proof needed.
That I could get away with this is telling.
The easy translation of Gartner’s framework from the tech sector to other fields — not just international development — suggests that there are deeper structural forces at play. Some combination of how the media covers trends, promotional feedback loops, and basic human optimism means that we’re susceptible market bubbles (dot-coms, housing), inflated expectations for incoming presidents (google “disillusionment with Obama”), and probably more faith in movie adaptations of books than is ever warranted. Each peak is followed by a crash, and then right-sizing. Maybe. The specific dynamics vary, as we see with development.
Proving the underlying principles is not that interesting to me. I’m going to take the existence of hype cycles and their applicability to development ideas as a given until someone wants to challenge them.
Even the idea that huge swings in the cycle are bad is pretty self-evident: hyped ideas draw resources and attention away from less flashy but possibly more effective ones, whether they’re the ideas along the plateau of productivity or simply the ideas that are hitting a lower peak of inflated expectations. To gain traction, advocates for new ideas face an incentive to push theirs to the highest peak possible, leading to more volatile cycles and poorer investment decisions across the board. It’s not just inflation of ideas; it’s inflation of inflation.
Yet before an idea reaches the peak, there are dissenting voices urging caution. We’d do well to listen.
Wouldn’t the sector be better off if it could test new ideas, even get excited about them, but find their weaknesses and understand the right way to make use of them — all before shifting major resources their way?
That means moderating the hype cycle. Here’s my speculation on a few actors and the steps they could take toward making that happen. (Fair warning: I don’t have a lot of faith in any of these actually accomplishing much. Sorry.)
1. Everyone. The first and most obvious mitigation is general education about the hype cycle effects. I’m heartened by how many people were interested in the last post, but I know that it’s a tiny slice of the sector’s decision makers.
2. Academic (counter-)hypers. You would think that academia serves as a source for counter-hype, and often it does. We should generally expect improved academic-policymaker-practitioner linkages to help moderate the volatility.
However, academic linkages can also be used to drive the hype cycle higher. My favorite example of this comes from counter-hyper-in-chief Bill Easterly: in his most popular book, he outlined how the creation of the Millennium Challenge Corporation was anchored in an academic study that didn’t stand up to later scrutiny. One academic study does not imply gospel truth. Academics know that, but the mantra of “evidence-based policy” can itself be used for political ends.
Incentives also become mixed when scholars create organizations around their ideas. The cross-over role of academics into practice or policy is critical, but everyone has a stake in their ideas. We should be aware of that stake when listening and focus on the evidence itself. The genius of academia lies not in the saintly discernment of any given scholar, but in a cut-throat epistemic community that actively works to tear down ideas. Once scholars step out of that community — into the world of TED talks and innovation prizes — they face an entirely different incentive structure.
3. Other counter-hypers. This is admittedly self-serving, but I think the blogosphere plays a big role in counter-hyping. It’s worth noting how few dissenting voices have institutional homes for their counter-hype. That makes sense: staff within organizations have more incentive to promote their own ideas than to criticize others. Critical blogging is usually secondary to our day jobs, and some stay completely anonymous.
4. Established donors and organizations. One of the drivers of the hype cycle is the need for entrepreneurs to sell their ideas. This was true in the dot-com bubble as well. The difference there was that anyone who believed an internet startup’s hype was investing their own funds, with the potential for massive personal gain. In the development sector, those who buy the hype are paying with funds that are meant to help someone else. It’s a different market, with different responsibilities.
What that means is we might all be safer if hyped development ideas were quarantined a bit. Shield them from the demands of fund/capital-raising, and their backers would feel less pressure to hype. One way to do that would be for more established organizations to serve as incubators and channels for innovation funds. They could potentially provide a hype-free zone to test and tinker. Once proven, the idea can be scaled or spun-off.
So that’s what I’ve got for moderating the hype cycle. I know… they all feel thin. Anyone have better ideas?