Photo: Ben Curtis/AP, via the Guardian

I’m no expert on Egypt or the Arab world. I was in Cairo a week before the protests started, and I had no idea what was coming. Actually, that doesn’t distinguish me from the experts: no one saw this coming.

Okay, some people did call this in advance. But the funny thing about predictions is that at any given point in time, everything imaginable is being predicted by someone. They may or may not be backing it up logically. It’s a common mistake to focus on the people who got it right last time and assume they’ll be able to repeat the trick.

So rather than link to a few articles and blog posts that give deeper analysis, most of which will be proven wrong soon enough, I suggest you tune in to Al Jazeera English. (Why Al Jazeera? This is why.) They’re broadcasting live views of Tahrir Square with commentary from people on the ground and various analysts.

You can watch them online either on their website or via livestation.

  1. Kartik Akileswaran February 3, 2011 at 9:32 am

    Harsh much? You’re right to be skeptical about predictions (even of those who predict the “big one”:, but part of what Drezner is arguing is that the field of political science has some relevant and important things to say about what is happening in Egypt. I tend to agree, particularly in light of yesterday’s events.


    1. Oh, you’re right. That may have been a bit harsh. I was just trying to excuse my own indecision about whose commentary to link to, and convince people that they should just watch AJE instead — but it became a general swipe at pundits everywhere. My bad.

      Thanks for the link to the Boston article. Good piece.


  2. Kartik Akileswaran February 3, 2011 at 9:37 am

    Btw, I agree with your recommendation of the Al Jazeera live stream–it is excellent!


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